张玉刚: 金马仑之战反思

(10-6-2018)

在民主行动党竞选的47个国会议席中,最艰辛难打、最消耗体力和精神的选战,金马仑高原国会(Cameron Highlands,P78)应该是名列前茅。选举结果也显示,金马仑高原国会和刘镇东同志竞选的亚依淡国会(Ayer Hitam,P148),是行动党在半岛吃下的唯二败仗。

笔者获党委派上阵金马仑高原国会旗下的丹那拉打州议席(Tanah Rata,N01),有幸参与金马仑的全程战役,特在《火箭报》记录下过程中的重要事件,并尝试从败仗中找出宝贵的教训和经验。由于特殊的地理、社会与经济环境,金马仑这个地区,可说是全国少有的非马来人过半,却是反对党阵营迟迟无法赢下的国会选区。就算是华裔选民过半的丹那拉打州议席,也要迟至2013年全国大选,才让行动党取得第一次胜利,可说是马华少数的堡垒。金马仑高原主要是分布在蒂蒂旺沙山脉上。它的形状就像是7万1千218公顷的菱形,位于彭亨州的西北角。

金马仑高原现有4条主要出入道路,分别是接壤彭亨州劳勿-立碑的冷力-双溪歌央大道(Jalan Ringlet – Sungai Koyan),霹雳州打巴路和霹雳州新邦波赖路以及吉兰丹的话望生大道(Gua Musang)。金马仑多数的高山都位于霹雳州西部边境,有着超过30%的土地是位于海拔1400米以上的。特殊的地理位置,让金马仑高原的政府行政,一直处于山高皇帝远的状态。其选民结构为马来选民34%、华裔选民30%、印裔选民15%以及原住民选民22%,没有任何一个族群在这个国会占绝大多数。华印裔选民多几乎集中于丹那拉打区,而马来选民和原住民选民则集中于日黎区。

特殊的结构,让这个地区长久以来都有印度国大党、马华公会(2008年被独立人士击败后,该独立人士迅即加入民政党)和巫统占据。上一次2013年全国大选,行动党的印裔国席候选人马诺佳仁( Manogaran)律师,仅以 462 张多数票,微差败给印度国大党的 G. Palanivel,但废票却有 877 张,没有出来的投票人数为 5232人。该年大选,行动党掀起华印裔反风,全面攻占金马仑境内的所有的新村,惟最后败在马来垦殖区和原住民村落。这一次大选,行动党在金马仑面对严峻的挑战。2014 年 11 月,金马仑冷力河发生洪灾和土崩,引发人命伤亡,国家单位归咎山上农业,

雷厉风行展开 “象牙行动”(Ops Gading) ,透过国家安全理事会,下令军队和推土机大肆扫除非法菜园芭,以及遣返非法外劳。“象牙行动”是在一个只是生产粮食和从事旅游业,并且土地面积不大的高原,部署数百名军警执法部队和官员,针对的竟然是崇高且重要的农业领域,自马共时期紧急状态以后,半岛鲜有如此大规模的军警调动。再者,“象牙行动”发生在505大选之后,也让山上所有农民都相信这是一场具有政治报复的迫害性的行动。每一个山上的农民,话题都离不开“象牙行动”,大家都害怕接触在野党会让自己的菜园不保,可以说整座山都处于人心惶惶的状态。

“象牙行动”展开之际,梁金福州议员和行动党支部被农民当成“灾星”,马华和民政甚至大肆造谣,恐吓村民若接受行动党的声援将会引祸上身。也因此,该地支部自“象牙行动”,再也无法召集人群,进行任何群众活动,党部运作近乎瘫痪。由于金马仑大部分人民都是从事农业和旅游业,在山上的主要议题主要分成4大类。第一,农耕地问题。金马仑高原供应马来半岛超过 50% 的蔬果产量,作为一个粮食重镇和出口枢纽,但国阵政府从来就没有一套针对金马仑农业本身的具体定位和落实政策。

金马仑的农耕地,实际上真正拥有租赁( leasehold )的少只有少,超过 95% 属于 “临时耕地”(Temporary Occupation Land,TOL),每一年需要更新,更新时还需要银两奉上官府,掏出上千令吉的更新费和租借费。若 TOL 无法获得更新,就可能随时变成所谓的 “非法菜园芭”。此外,在森林地边缘耕作,没有 TOL,也大有所在。尤其是许多原住民的传统习俗地,也无端端地被划作为国家的森林保留地。这打开了一个缺口,让贪污索贿有空间发生。因为每一年,如何做出土地是 “临时合法” 或 “非法” 的判断根据,取决于官字两把口。今天土地可以合法。明天可以变得不合法。

也有些农民容易受蒙骗,认为 TOL 就是地契,然而现实并不是。TOL 只是 “暂用执照”,TOL 的地是属于政府的,只是政府没有计划要用,而租借出去。更何况,根据国家土地法典(National Land Code),TOL 是不得转让的,即使持有者过世,家中孩子也不能继承。国阵政府随时有权利收回,也不需要赔偿农民。第二,就是因为旅游业发展而造成的交通堵塞问题。同样的,由于当局的腐败和短视,胡乱派发营业执照和毫无规划的发展,导致周末期间,美兰村(Kea Farm)一带的交通近乎瘫痪,让居民和游客都叫苦不迭。

第三,混乱的外劳政策,这同样因为前朝中央政府为圈钱而引发的乱象。内政部把移民厅的职责,外包给私人公司当成赚钱项目,导致非常依赖外劳的金马仑农业,变成非法外劳的天堂。第四,非法开采所引发的环境问题。2000年代 WWF 已经警告,金马仑的土地政策,并不具备永续。只有一年期限的TOL,让菜农变得短视,担心执照无法获得更新,菜农就不会对自己的农业事业抱住长远计划,落实专业化管理,以及投资创新的生产技术,实现产业升级。为了在一年的执照期限内达到收成目标,快速回收成本,菜农被迫选择高度污染性的化学肥料以催生农作物,或依靠大量的非法外劳。这对土地的伤害会更深。

2012年,国家总稽查司报告也直接点名土地局、环境局、水利灌溉局:“ Isu kelemahan kolaborasi dan koordinasi antara jabatan dan agensi seperti pemberian permit dan kelulusan tanah di kawasan yang sensitif dan berisiko oleh Pejabat Tanah tetapi tidak mematuhi syarat kelulusan daripada pihak Jabatan Alam Sekitar dan Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran. ” (Laporan Audit Negara, 2012)金马仑的居民,长期受困于这四大问题,也因为这4大问题,直接影响到他们的生计和生活,导致他们对大型国家议题如一马公司丑闻、贪污腐败等不大关心。毕竟,对他们而言,谁做政府并不重要,最重要的是能够给他们土地,保障他们的饭碗。

在这种情况之下,几可预测国阵在这一场选战针对华印裔选民的主旋律,就是使用恐吓威胁的招数。另一方面,由于掌握国家机器如联邦土地发展局(FELDA)和原住民发展局(JAKOA),让国阵在这两个地区如入无人之境,这也是国阵过去多年,牢牢掌控这些选区的关键手段。在砂拉越州选之后,行动党的IMPIAN TEAM就转战金马仑高原,专注于耕耘原住民村庄。然而,在选战一开打之后,我们发现,竟然有些原住民村庄深锁大门不让我们进入,也有的BATIN(原住民村长)转变态度,拒绝我们接触其村民。

可以这么说,以农耕地恐吓华印裔农民,再透过FELDA和JAKOA挡住希望联盟进军垦殖区和原住民村庄的脚步,是国阵巩固票源的三大杀招。说到以农耕地恐吓华印裔农民,不得不提金马仑马华所做出的一连串倒米事件。由于国阵举办的讲座和宴会门可罗雀,国阵为了召集村民,就以讨论TOL事项为借口,要求农民出席与金马仑土地局的会议,并明目张胆在信函中声明,若不出席该会议将会影响TOL的更新。此事件引起公愤之后,村长随后宣告农民与政府部门的汇报会展延。4月30日,甘榜拉惹村长陈永耀更是以副首相之名义,公然在各个微信群组,威胁村民出席会议,以便让国阵候选人能够见到村民。此事件引起公愤之后,村长随后宣告农民与政府部门的汇报会展延。

过了两天,国阵再次发力,这一次他们成功把时任看守大臣安南耶谷(Adnan Yaakob)请上山,在直冷甲大礼堂接见村民,声称有关于土地政策的好消息要跟农民们分享。通过国阵国会候选人Sivaraj的脸书直播,我们可以看到看守大臣的演讲只有短短20分钟,没有任何好消息,更放话唯有金马仑选民让国阵在金马仑高原一国两州都胜选,土地事宜才有得谈。看守大臣此举,把过去4年来身心都饱受折磨得金马仑选民的怒气都激发出来,也把马华候选人推入无底深渊,行动党在丹那拉打的选情可说大局已定。此时,金马仑高原国会定胜负的战场,已经转移至日黎州议席。

选票分析显示,希望联盟在金马仑高原的垦殖区和原住民村庄可说是全面溃败,一些村庄,甚至出现个位数的成绩,让人沮丧。而在垦殖区,其实已经掀起了小股的反风,只可惜这一股反风并不是吹向希望联盟,而是投给了伊斯兰党。也许对当地马来选民而言,伊斯兰党是个更值得信赖的品牌。另一方面,则是因为上阵日黎州议席的土团党候选人Dr Rashid,其实是最后一分钟才被派出上阵,该候选人在当地也没有竞选机器,只是依附行动党的团队跑动,这也影响了垦殖区和马来甘榜选民投票给希盟的意愿。

由此可见,国阵之所以能够赢下金马仑高原国会和日黎州议席,完全是依赖其在垦殖区和原住民村庄的铁票。尽管如此,这并非是因为国阵深得民心,而只是因为他们掌控了国家机器所取得的优势。当然,社会主义党的参选,也冲击了希望联盟国会的胜选。由于路线差异不大,社党的票源,可算是希望联盟同温层的票源。该党的总共赢得680票,比国会多数票的597票要多,可说分散了希望联盟的总得票。在全国改朝换代的当儿,无法拿下金马仑高原国会,是美中不足之处,也让仍是反对党的丹那拉打州议员在未来的工作,增添挑战。

巫统在未来失去了中央政府的资源,要如何维持在垦殖区和原住民村庄的支持率,也是非常严峻的挑战。在可预测的未来,长期养尊处优的国阵,将逐渐失去军警、公务员和垦殖区这些传统铁票的支持,要重夺政权可说不容易。而希望联盟,在未来五年的主要对手,也预料将会是伊斯兰党。来届大选的竞选主轴,将会是希盟的政绩对垒伊斯兰党的神权意识形态之战。至于金马仑高原的未来发展,又可以如何彰显正义、民主、公平、安全和效率原则?则是改朝换代后,我们该思考的。

PM empowering Azmin to oversee companies worth RM1 trillion

(10-06-2018)

PRIME Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad is giving Economic Affairs Minister Azmin Ali wide powers over critical government-linked companies which are collectively worth more than RM1 trillion to neutralise the influence of Anwar Ibrahim, the Straits Times reports. The Singapore daily news outlet said the PM’s latest move to empower Azmin could trigger rivalries within Harapan component parties and to neutralise the influence of de facto PKR leader Anwar. This move could strengthen Azmin’s position while checking Anwar’s within PKR, of which Anwar is the de facto leader. Azmin and PKR colleague Zuraida Kamaruddin, who is housing and local government minister, are said to be members of rival camp against Anwar and his wife, Deputy Prime Minister Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail.

Quoting sources, the report said the Economic Affairs portfolio oversees sovereign wealth funds Permodalan Nasional Bhd and Khazanah Nasional Bhd, as well as national oil company Petronas. The three companies with an estimated worth of RM1 trillion were previously the purview of Ministry of Finance Inc during the Barisan Nasional administration. There is also talk that agencies in charge of Malay/Muslim welfare, such as the Tabung Haji and Felda will be placed under Azmin’s ministry, the report said. The Prime Minister’s Department currently oversees Felda and Tabung Haji. Both had been marred by various high-profile scandals during the tenure of former premier Najib Abdul Razak. “The scope is so wide that earlier plans to place International Trade and Industry under MEA (the Ministry of Economic Affairs) will likely be ditched,” a source familiar with the restructuring was quoted as saying. The report claimed that Mahathir had made a “huge gesture” by giving Azmin the economic affairs portfolio. This was because the transfer of Petronas, Khazanah and over 60 other companies currently under the purview of the Minister of Finance Inc would be a complex process that possibly required legal amendments that were approved by Parliament. “The manoeuvres by Dr Mahathir, who fended off several challenges to his leadership during his first tenure as prime minister from 1981 to 2003, are seen as just another strategy from the 92-year-old’s “divide-and-conquer playbook” said the report.

Dr Mahathir heads the government after May 9. His party Bersatu won 13 parliamentary seats while PKR holds 49 seats – the most number of seats among Harapan component parties. Both parties are components of the Pakatan Harapan. The report said Azmin had been appointed to the key ministerial post despite PKR’s bid for one of four top portfolios – finance, home affairs, defence or education – being rebuffed during the early stages of negotiations. According to the report, Mahathir’s move to empower Azmin had subsequently triggered alarm bells among Anwar’s supporters. PKR president Wan Azizah Wan Ismail was named deputy prime minister but the party was left out when it came to the education, finance, defence and home affairs portfolios, all of which are senior ministries, the paper said. It also alleged that Azmin and Housing and Local Government Minister Zuraida Kamaruddin are part of a rival faction within PKR who are facing off against Anwar and his wife, Deputy Prime Minister Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail. Anwar himself had earlier this week, in his first official meeting with PKR leaders since being freed from prison, reminded them to throw their full support behind Mahathir’s administration. Since his release from prison, Anwar has become the intermediary between the new government and the Malay rulers who still have some say in the filling of key institutional posts. Anwar has said that his meetings with the Malay rulers had been held to explain to them government policies and to debunk fears the PH administration would sideline the sultans and the Malays.

Anwar has also refuted claims he is secretly undermining the work of the prime minister, which many believe had occurred the first time the two of them were in Umno and the cabinet, when Dr Mahathir was PM and he was DPM. There is no falling out between Anwar Ibrahim and Mohamed Azmin Ali, commenting by PKR president Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail on the report by Singapore’s The Straits Times. The deputy prime minister refuted claims that there are camps in the party, and reiterated that PKR is united. “I don’t think there is a rift. As I’ve said, we are in one camp,” she told reporters after breaking fast at Dataran Merdeka. It was rumoured that both Azmin and PKR colleague Zuraida Kamaruddin, who is housing and local government minister, are said to be members of a camp rivalling Anwar and his wife, Dr Wan Azizah. Dr Wan Azizah, who is also Pandan MP, said despite Azmin’s name not being submitted by the party for a cabinet position, the choice of ministers is Dr Mahathir’s prerogative.

“There is nothing wrong with this,” she said, referring to Azmin being named as economic affairs minister.